Domestic migration, home rentals, and crime rates in China

Although it is commonly believed that immigration leads to a high crime rate, this relationship is far from conclusive. This paper contributes to this line of research by exploring the case of China, a country undergoing rapid and profound urbanization. We collected and analyzed the arrest and prosecution data from the procuratorates of 306 prefectures in China, combined with interviews with nine policemen and public procurators from five provinces. We found that domestic migration in different cities is significantly related to the prosecution rate, while home rentals provide a better predictor of the arrest rate. These findings imply that migration may introduce crime, but may partly through the rental-housing factor. Compared with prosecution cases that are broader in scope, arrest cases indicate graver crimes in China. This suggests that the rental factor may play an important role in the emergence and prevention of crime. The findings call for reflection on urbanization and its unintended consequences. Housing policies should not be considered merely in their economic sense; it should not be neglected as important social policy leverage in crime prevention and social inclusion.